Could someone elaborate on what, "ploppers" means? I have not heard the term before.
Also, if I understand the sentiment in thread, some are suggesting that if one were to play negative expectancy machines with lower variance, they might have a better chance of winning than playing higher variance games with an edge?
A. I'm not sure that's what they meant. I emailed them privately asking for elaboration but have received no reply...so I'm guessing as to what they meant for certain.
B. If that is what they were saying, I believe depending on bankroll and the number of hands played, there could be a mathematical precedence for favoring the lower variance games. So in a sense they are correct.
I would add several things:
1. Obviously with infinite play and infinite bankroll the higher return game is always the better play...and let variance be dammed.
2. If we take a small fixed bankroll of $1,000, your chance of being ahead is slightly grater playing something like 8/5 BoPo. "Ahead how much???", would be the pregnant question.
3. If you were willing to lose $1,000 playing 8/5 BoPo, your chance to hit a RF would be greater than on a higher base-hold game, of course at the end of this trial you would only get a $1,000 JP and net somewhere between a $1-$1,000 profit.
4. The same $1,000 BR played on a very high progressive has a smaller chance of getting you to the RF, but if you did hit the big one you would be up potentially life altering amounts of money rather than back where you started.
5. And lastly, if you really only had $1,000 to gamble with, not gambling at all would likely be your most prudent course of action.
In summery, it is possible to make a solid mathematical case for a negative lower variance game being the better choice, but in so doing one must set the variables in such a way as to make "not gambling at all" an even better idea.
All this assumes that "winning" is your ultimate goal. If you play for fun disregard this post. Of course from a pro POV I would think hitting a really big progressive would be more "fun" than a garden variety non-progressive.
~FK
