--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick E. Percy" <ricke.percy@...>
You are right. I worked too fast and looked at the wrong column of numbers
wrote:
>
> Agree the most common answer or "mode" is 1. The "median" is 3.
>
> If there are S "stop" doors and G "go" doors, the general answer for the mean on
> a problem of this nature is (G + S + 1)/(S + 1) for S >=1 and just G if S = 0.
> The special case identified here is indeed (15 + 5 + 1)/(5 + 1) = 3 1/2.
>
>
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: Tom Robertson <007@...>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Sun, April 3, 2011 4:51:51 PM
> Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: A video keno puzzzler
>
>
> Probably flawed? You and Harry posted your answers at the same minute, so you
> and he were probably working independently, and, without looking at either of
> your messages, losing my virginity at using Excel spreadsheets, I did it
> essentially the way Harry described and came up with the same answer, so I'd be
> very surprised to discover that it wasn't right.
>
> 4 being the most common number? Wouldn't 1 be, with each additional number
> being somewhat less likely?
>
> ----- Robert <merg17@...> wrote:
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> >I did an expected value computation. That is find the probability of each of 16
> >possibilities. Then multiply the number of "doors" times its probability and
> >add up the 16 terms. I did it quickly and certainly have round off errors and
> >probably other errors. My probably flawed answer was 3.5 doors. The most
> >likely event is 4 doors but I have the average of 3.5.
>
> >
>
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>
> > >
>
> > > I spend a considerable amount of time analyzing games. I'm always looking to
> >add a play to my repertoire. Most of the work goes for naught but I do come up
> >with a gem every once and awhile.
> >
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> > >
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> > > It's these type of video keno games that I think are the wave of the future
> >in advantage play. I see more and more of them these days. They can't be fully
> >analyzed by existing commercial software. Here's what this 8-SPOT video keno
> >play looks like:
>
> > >
>
> > > PAYSCALE
>
> > >
>
> > > 8 of 8.............800
>
> > > 7 of 8.............160 + 2% METER
>
> > > 6 of 8.............19
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> > > 5 of 8.............11
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> > > 4 of 8.............4
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> > > 3 of 8.............1
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> > >
>
> > > I know how to do the math for the payscale with a calculator, pen and pad,
> >but Bob pointed out to me about a month ago that the Wizard of Odds has a keno
> >analyzer on his website. That saves me a lot of time.
> >
>
> > >
>
> > > So the payscale came up 81.6246%. The first thing I did was cull out the
> >payback for hitting a solid 8, putting the number at 81.277%. I don't like the
> >extreme longshots figuring into these types of plays.
>
> > >
>
> > > But there is another segment to the game. A game within the game. The
> >player picks his/her numbers. When you hit the start button STARS jump out onto
> >7 randomly picked numbers. The machine picks change every game while the player
> >can just keep playing the same numbers.
> >
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> > >
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> > > When you hit a pay with your numbers and at least 4 of the 7 machine picks
> >hit you go into a bonus round. To come up with the frequency of going into the
> >bonus round I looked at it like it was a 15-Spot with 1 way of 8 and 1 way of 7.
> >
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> > >
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> > > I first calculated the frequency for 7 of 15 and how many permutations would
> >be 3 of 8 and 4 of 7. Then 8 of 15 and how many permutations would be 3 of 8
> >and 5 of 7, and 4 of 8 and 4 of 7. I went on up the line with this but culled
> >out the extreme longshots and put the frequency at 70.26 games for getting into
> >the bonus round.
> >
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> > >
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> > > When you make such a catch the game goes to an alternate screen. There are
> >20 doors with money prizes behind each. You get to pick the doors. The prizes
> >are multiples of the bet, 1X, 2X, 3X, and 4X. Seven of the doors have 1X, 8
> >have 2X, 3 have 3X and 2 have 4X. Average pick is 2X.
>
> > >
>
> > > 15 of the doors allow you to pick again. 5 of the doors, while still
> >awarding a money prize, have a stop sign behind them. When you pick one of them
> >the bonus round is over and you return to the main game.
> >
>
> > >
>
> > > At first glance I figured to average 4 picks. But this may not be true. On
> >the first pick you are 15 to 5 to keep picking. But if you are succesful there
> >the next pick is only 14 to 5 to keep picking, 13 to 5, etc.
> >
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> > >
>
> > > I've never done this kind of math before so I'm looking for any and all
> >opinions on what the exact frequency of picks would be.
>
> > >
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> > > Thanks in advance.
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