I get 1 in 342,870.
There are 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 permutations for the eight cards in a specific order (say, up1, up2, up3a, down1a, down2a, up3b, down1b, down2b).
To get a royal, both of the "common" up cards have to be 2 to the same royal; there are 20 possibilities for the first card, and, for each of these, four for the second card.
If the other three cards in the royal are in "group A", it's 3 choices for the up card, 2 for the "first" down card, and 1 for the "second" down card - and, for each of these, 47 x 46 x 45 for the three "group B" cards. Since "group B" is symmetrical to group A, multiply this by 2.
Thus, there are 20 x 4 x (2 x (3 x 2 x 1 x 47 x 46 x 45)) different ways to get a RF in Pick'em.
Divide this by the number of permutations = 1/342,870.
-- Don
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "AK-SAR-BEN" <tomskilv@...> wrote:
>
> Not sure where you got the misquote from me for 90k royal cycle. But that is not correct. The exact cycle length per my caculations is 351,817.7 hands. TomSki
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bobbartop" <bobbartop@> wrote:
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hit royal on a pick-em poker game 2 mondays ago, a 1 in a 90k shot.
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Royals come around about every 350,000 in fp pickem. Once you're looking at three parts to it, it's just another 2-card draw. Easy peasy.
> > >
> > per tomSki royal flush cycle is 90k+
> >
> > MJ
> >
>
