Probably flawed? You and Harry posted your answers at the same minute, so you and he were probably working independently, and, without looking at either of your messages, losing my virginity at using Excel spreadsheets, I did it essentially the way Harry described and came up with the same answer, so I'd be very surprised to discover that it wasn't right.
4 being the most common number? Wouldn't 1 be, with each additional number being somewhat less likely?
----- Robert <merg17@hotpop.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>I did an expected value computation. That is find the probability of each of 16 possibilities. Then multiply the number of "doors" times its probability and add up the 16 terms. I did it quickly and certainly have round off errors and probably other errors. My probably flawed answer was 3.5 doors. The most likely event is 4 doors but I have the average of 3.5.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
> >
> > I spend a considerable amount of time analyzing games. I'm always looking to add a play to my repertoire. Most of the work goes for naught but I do come up with a gem every once and awhile.
> >
> > It's these type of video keno games that I think are the wave of the future in advantage play. I see more and more of them these days. They can't be fully analyzed by existing commercial software. Here's what this 8-SPOT video keno play looks like:
> >
> > PAYSCALE
> >
> > 8 of 8.............800
> > 7 of 8.............160 + 2% METER
> > 6 of 8.............19
> > 5 of 8.............11
> > 4 of 8.............4
> > 3 of 8.............1
> >
> > I know how to do the math for the payscale with a calculator, pen and pad, but Bob pointed out to me about a month ago that the Wizard of Odds has a keno analyzer on his website. That saves me a lot of time.
> >
> > So the payscale came up 81.6246%. The first thing I did was cull out the payback for hitting a solid 8, putting the number at 81.277%. I don't like the extreme longshots figuring into these types of plays.
> >
> > But there is another segment to the game. A game within the game. The player picks his/her numbers. When you hit the start button STARS jump out onto 7 randomly picked numbers. The machine picks change every game while the player can just keep playing the same numbers.
> >
> > When you hit a pay with your numbers and at least 4 of the 7 machine picks hit you go into a bonus round. To come up with the frequency of going into the bonus round I looked at it like it was a 15-Spot with 1 way of 8 and 1 way of 7.
> >
> > I first calculated the frequency for 7 of 15 and how many permutations would be 3 of 8 and 4 of 7. Then 8 of 15 and how many permutations would be 3 of 8 and 5 of 7, and 4 of 8 and 4 of 7. I went on up the line with this but culled out the extreme longshots and put the frequency at 70.26 games for getting into the bonus round.
> >
> > When you make such a catch the game goes to an alternate screen. There are 20 doors with money prizes behind each. You get to pick the doors. The prizes are multiples of the bet, 1X, 2X, 3X, and 4X. Seven of the doors have 1X, 8 have 2X, 3 have 3X and 2 have 4X. Average pick is 2X.
> >
> > 15 of the doors allow you to pick again. 5 of the doors, while still awarding a money prize, have a stop sign behind them. When you pick one of them the bonus round is over and you return to the main game.
> >
> > At first glance I figured to average 4 picks. But this may not be true. On the first pick you are 15 to 5 to keep picking. But if you are succesful there the next pick is only 14 to 5 to keep picking, 13 to 5, etc.
> >
> > I've never done this kind of math before so I'm looking for any and all opinions on what the exact frequency of picks would be.
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
