It costs 0.247% of your bet to hold just the aces (1.24 cents on a $1 game
as you say). Aces up are 19008 out of the 2,598,960 possible hands. So the
EV is lowered by 0.00247 * (19008 / 2,598,960) or 0.0018%. So it'll cost you
about $18 for every million dollars you put through the machine. At 1000
hands per hour you'd be throwing away 9 cents/hour. Some folks may have that
kind of money to waste but I don't.
Cogno
-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
Dan Paymar
Sent: Thursday, February 3, 2011 10:18 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Real cost of an "error"
When dealt two pairs Aces-up in 10/7 Double Bonus Poker, many players
have a strong inclination to hold just the pair of aces, even knowing
that holding the two pairs has a higher EV. At one time, someone on this
forum asked what it cost to hold just the aces. An analyst who is no
longer with us replied 0.01%, but I'm sure that was just an easy way to
say the cost was very small.
I now have software to accurately evaluate a strategy chart, and I
decided to find out. Surprise! There was no change in game's "payback"
(expected return) to five decimal places!!
Conclusion? On a 5-coin $1 machine, the "cost" of this error is about
1.24 cents each time it occurs, but the long-term cost is in the very
low noise level.
My suggestions. If you're a pro, hold the two pair. If you're in Las
Vegas for only an occasional weekend, hold just the pair of aces. For
anyone else, it's basically a toss-up.
Dan Paymar
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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