--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
>
> I am mathematically challenged, and so perhaps one of you who
isn't might consider helping
> me out with this problem. It may very well apply to many others in
my situation.
> My husband and I are quarter players, snowbirds who spend three
months in Las Vegas. We
> practice on the computer and play our chosen games at over 99%
accuracy. We play FPDW
> and 9/6 JOB, as well as BP with good progressives, (the BP in both
single and triple play
> configurations.
or about 540,000 each
> winter.
> At what point, or at what number of games played should the
hypothetical and the actual rate
> of return approach the same number? Or I guess what I'm also
asking is what would be the
> amount needed to avoid the risk of ruin? Our time spent is about
the same on each game.
> Thank you in advance for any information you might be able to
provide.
>
"99% accuracy" is a bit vague! I'll assume your errors cost you 50c
every 500 hands. However, it's a good idea to play 3000 hands on
WinPoker, FVP, or some other software that keeps track of errors to
get a more accurate estimate of the hourly cost of your errors.
$500 is enough for your daily bankroll. You will go broke less than
1% of the time if you play 3000 hands of 25c FPDW, making errors at
the rate of 50c/500 hands.
For a full winter of 154,000 hands, $5000 is enough for the FPDW
game. Your chance of going broke is almost zero. You have a 3%
chance of losing more than $3000.
If most of your play is JOB, you would need a little more bankroll
for the full winter because of the lower EV of the game.
You didn't mention cashback and other incentives. These reduce your
bankroll requirements.
As for your question about when the actual and hypothetical rates of
return converge, the answer is 'a very long time'. For example, if
you play 450,000 flawless hands of 25c FPDW, you "should" be ahead
about $4000. In reality, there is still a 16% chance you will be
losing.
I'd recommend getting some good software for practice and to answer
your bankroll/risk questions.
--Dunbar
(Calcs above were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker.)
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