Like using Newton's method for solving equations my 0.1% chance at a cheating machine is only a guess, granted but you need to start someplace. The other bone of contention was that I did the analysis in the wrong order doesn't matter - basically Bayes theorem states that the probability that event A happens given event B is the probability of both A and B occurring divided by the probability of B occurring. This is what I did. To ignore evidence because you didn't think of it beforehand is foolish. It happened, just ask dje59. I believe him. Personal note to dje59 - make sure where you are playing the regulations require honest machines (every undealt card before or after the draw is equally likely to occur). In the old days (I'm dating myself) on reel slots every stop on each reel had to have an equal chance of occurring. I found a machine where with those rules I had at least a 50% edge. I played, I got crushed - at least 7 standard deviations to the left I was convinced I was cheated. I was cheated - legally!! when writing to gaming I was informed that the law requiring fairness on reel slots was recently changed. My words 'cheating is now legal on reel slots'. Thanks for telling me after the fact.
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Posted by: Steve Norden <nordo123@aol.com>
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