--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:
>
> Weharter wrote toe xxxent: "You make over $500K a year playing video
> poker?
>
> If so, then that's truly impressive, as it would equate to over a
> $240/hr play, 40 hr/wk, 52 wk/yr. Hard to believe casino management
> couldn't figure out such a play and then downgrade it.
>
> Sorta makes this $310/hr 7x points play seem kinda mundane. After all,
> the 7x points was only for 5 days."
>
>
>
> It's not like that --- at least for me. I've had this annual score or
> better only three times --- 2000, 2001, and 2007. In each case, there
> was one or more "really big scores" and it goes in fits and starts. On
> December 1 of last year, for example, my year-to-date score was barely
> $200,000, but I ended up hitting three $20,000 jackpots, along with a
> $50,000, $100,000, and $240,000 royal in the same month --- all at
> different casinos. It was hardly a steady $10K a week like Weharter's
> post implies. Although 2008 is averaging more that that (through nine
> weeks --- which is definitely short run), I have no idea what my "bottom
> line" will be at the end of the year. (I lost $150,000 between October 1
> and December 1 last year. On December 1 I wasn't positive my score was
> going to be positive at all --- and yet it turned out to be over
> $500,000. In early March, it's impossible to accurately predict what's
> going to happen.)
>
> It's always a surprise when great scores happen. A couple of years ago
> when Brad and Jean won $500K in a tournament (which they shared with
> another couple), this was hardly something they could have accurately
> predicted or they expect to happen regularly. They WANT it to happen
> regularly, I'm sure, but so does everybody else in those tournaments and
> generally speaking the entry fees of the losers pay the winners. There
> was a nice "overlay" of several thousand dollars involved on that event,
> which means they definitely had the advantage and that was why they were
> playing in the first place, but this was a Ph. D. tournament (which
> stands for "press here, dummy") and nobody has significantly more skill
> than the other contestants so nobody can reasonably expect to win all
> the time.
>
> There may be players who regularly make $500K a year from video poker
> --- but I doubt it happened regularly in Las Vegas which is where 90% of
> my play is. (If they made it at one casino, they'd likely be 86'd after
> a while.) There are numerous players who have made that amount a small
> number of times. And you're definitely correct that casinos make
> downgrades. The Rio and Bally's, for example, reacted to a number of
> $240,000 and $400,000 royals in December of last year and as of January
> 5 of this year, no longer offer bonus credits on $100 9/6 Jacks ---
> either in the 3-coin or 5-coin version. Because of that, I'll no longer
> be playing at these casinos which greatly reduces my chances for a
> $240,000 jackpot this year. (But it may be possible at other casinos).
>
> Some of these big jackpots were on "$200 or $300 per hour" games that
> only lasted a short while --- sometimes one weekend only due to a
> promotion. The biggest jackpots I hit last month at GVR was "only" $40K
> (along with two for $20,000), but I could have hit one for $160,000 ---
> and I could have lost $80,000 on the play. The hourly prediction is a
> "best guess" and it's used to decide between alternatives. But it rarely
> turns out to be exactly as planned. These games are never "mundane", at
> least to me. These are great opportunities that only happen a few times
> a month and serious players need to jump on them when they arise.
>
> I don't know who uses the pseudynym "xxxent", although if he is being
> truthful that he's earned $500K during one or more years, I likely know
> him under his real name. It's a rather small community of players who
> play for stakes that would allow such a net score and we frequently find
> ourselves congregated at the same events.
>
> Some players give their net W2Gs as their score. If that is what xxxent
> was doing, it's not a big trick to average $500K a year as it's only a
> statement of how big you played, not on how much you won. (I'm an annual
> multi-millionaire keeping score on that basis --- but I certainly don't
> consider that a legitimate way) The score that counts IMO is your "net"
> score --- which means wins minus losses. Even here, though, there's a
> HUGE difference in the way players keep score.
>
> For example, Shirley and I spent 22 days cruising last year (three
> different cruises --- all comped) to the Mexican Rivera, the Caribbean,
> and around the Mediterranean. I don't count these kinds of scores in our
> bottom line, but some people do. The last car I won, which was a couple
> of years ago at the Palms, was listed as $24K but they strongly
> encouraged me to take 80% of that in cash --- which I did. In my records
> I show this as a $19,200 win --- but other players may record it
> differently. As another example, players record free play differently
> from each other. There's enough wiggle room in everybody's records that
> it's impossible to know for sure how somebody did --- even if you heard
> the bottom line figure.
>
> Bob Dancer
A couple of follow up points to Bob's post. First, a lot of the earn
in VP is from hitting home runs, like winning a big slot tourney, like
winning a big drawing, flopping a royal on a 100-play, making a royal
on a denom one or two notches bigger than you usually play, etc. That
being said, you can understand the amount of variance involved. As one
owner of perhaps the most successful keno team operation of all time
once noted, "you get your EV in life". I couldn't agree more, at some
point, you will hit a home run or two if you play often enough and
analyze the plays properly.
The second thing, the opportunities are still there, trust me, my
specialty is finding mid-level stuff with big edges (kind of like the
$2 5-play version of Mickey Crimm, if you will), because I'm big on
certainty. It's a necessity because I'm often not bankrolled as well
as I'd like to be. I also happen to play a number of games from very
well to lights out, including the more difficult ones. In the last
three years, my benchmark has gone from $60/hr to $125/hr, and I'm
finding plenty of stuff, with good certainty, at $125/hr. It's just
that I have to schlepp for a lot of it. The game won't be driving to
your house, that much is for certain.
