--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:
>
> What I am talking about is a situation where there is a progressive >that can only be hit by a dealt royal - usually they seem to be on >multiple line machines. (There are a few of them at Red Rock). So my >question is: how high would the progressive have to be to make the EV >good enough to justify playing for that jackpot? (if that makes sense)
>
> Valerie
>
>
We need more information to properly analyze this play. We need the payscale of the base game. By the base game I mean is it 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus Poker, 9/6 Double Double?, etc. About all I can do with the information on hand is create a hypothetical.
First of all this type of play is not my cup of tea (but it doesn't mean it's not yours). It's a mega long term play. Back when I played very heavily I flopped maybe one or two royals a year.
If the game were dollar triple play 8/5 Bonus Poker with the regular royal paying 800 for 1, here's what you would be looking at. You got a base game of 99.17%. 100 minus 99.17 = .83%. That's how far from the breakeven point we are.
Here's how we find the breakeven point. You're betting $15 per deal, chance of the flopped royal is 649,740, the deficit is .83%. So we multiply 15 X 649,740 X .0083 which = $80,893.
But that's not the final number. A flopped royal in this game would pay $12,000 anyway. And that $12,000 is accounted for in the base game. So we have to add $12,000 plus $80,893 which = $92,893. About every $10,000 above that number would add .1% to the play.
This play has a lot of problems. Best I remember I could get out about 800 deals per hour on a triple play. That would mean I could expect a payday about every 812 hours of play. And that's an average. It doesn't account for variance. You also better bring a mega bankroll to this mega long term play. And what are you gonna do when someone else flops the royal? Wait for it to go back up?
